BREXIT: Exporters, Don’t Forecast Long-Term Decline

The Institute of Export has recently released the results of a survey of its members, post-Brexit referendum. There is one finding that has astounded me: 42% of respondents said that, in the event of removal from the Single Market, they expect their business to shrink in the long-term. I have one, provocative, question: what on Earth are these businesses doing between now (or, the recent past) and then?

Budgens, Beware the Middle or Trying to out-Waitrose Waitrose

Michael Porter’s Competitive Strategy is somewhat of a Market Analyst’s Bible. Porter advanced the notion – among many others – that there are, broadly, three generic strategies:

• Differentiation, think Waitrose.
• Cost Leadership, think Aldi.
• Focus, think your local corner shop with its focused geographical market of a few hundred homes.

Michael Porter's Generic Strategies

Challengers Can Become 'Super-Forecasters' for Competitive Advantage

BOOK REVIEW: ‘Super-Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’, by Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

As a Market Analyst – having worked in a variety of environments from global businesses to academia, consultancy to the military – forecasting is a crucial skill; and, according to this book, "forecasting is a skill that can be cultivated." In one of those aforementioned, cliché-ridden, environments I have oft heard such statements as: “We’re here to forecast the weather, not read the news”; or, even more self-aggrandisingly amusing: “We are prophets, not historians.” Whatever; it remains the case that a central tenet of the role of an Intelligence Analyst is to make assessments about the future.

But, fascinatingly, the central premise of this superb book, ‘Super-Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’, is that, actually, those who are often trumpeted as ‘experts’ at such things – from economists, to political journalists, to the CIA – are actually no better at it than laymen or, even, “a dart-throwing chimp.” OK, it’s a lot more nuanced than that, as the author Philip Tetlock – whose research coined the infamous anecdote about that talented chimp – would point out, but the point stands.

Shropshire Needs a Kickstart!

‘Crowdfunding’ entered the Oxford English Dictionary in 2011, and is defined therein as, “the practice of funding a project or venture by raising money from a large number of people who each contribute a relatively small amount, typically via the internet.” Essentially, with a new business or project idea, one can seek to raise funds from friends, family and the general public online, instead of going to banks or the ‘Dragons’ Den’.

The global Crowdfunding industry is growing exponentially, having raised an estimated $6.1 billion in 2013, $16.2 billion in 2014, and more than doubling again to $34.4 billion in 2015.[1] The World Bank forecasts that it will be worth $93 billion by 2025 – perhaps a conservative estimate considering recent growth – as it is set to top the venture capital market ($45 billion) in the near future.[2] Figure 1 shows the recent growth, alongside a growth curve to the World Bank’s 2025 estimate based on compound annual growth rate (CAGR, dotted green) and what is a more likely convex curve following recent growth (dotted black).

Figure 1

BREXIT: Chaos and Opportunity

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” Sun Tzu.

OK, OK, “chaos”, is a bit hyperbolic! But it’s apt, perhaps, that the great Chinese general – now unwittingly eponymous with board room slogans the world over – made this observation, given that China is among the countries already seeking trade deal talks with a post-Brexit UK.

An adaptation on the Chaos Symbol

Shropshire's Productivity - A Little Less Puzzling

The UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ has been described by Chancellor George Osborne as, “the challenge of our time”, and is, according to the Office for National Statistics, “unprecedented in the post-war period.” Despite the general economic recovery from the 2008/09 recession, productivity – essentially the amount of output firms produce for the amount of input expended, measured by gross value-added (GVA) per hour worked – has flat-lined, as shown in Figure 1. 

Figure 1, Source: Office for National Statistics

SMEs, Why the Export Uncertainty?

Half of small businesses cited market intelligence (MI) as a major challenge to exporting, according to a recent report published by the Enterprise Research Centre, based partly at my own alma mater at Aston Business School. Likewise, a seminal study from the OECD and APEC cited "identifying foreign business opportunities" and "limited information to locate/analyse markets" as the second and third most significant barriers for SMEs, with the latter the most frequently cited. But this need not be the case, as data on overseas markets – for almost any product – is plentiful; the challenges, therefore, are in the awareness of this fact, and having the inclination, capacity and skills to utilise this data to reduce uncertainty and identify opportunities.

Mischievous Zagging and Customer Segmentation

Now there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write! Anyway…

One social trend highlighted by many observers over the last couple of decades or so is that towards increasingly thin skin, resulting in what is often rather disparagingly called 'political correctness'[1] – the notion that freedom of speech is being curtailed by the fear of causing offence, epitomised by people being investigated for posting 'offensive' views on social media. It's all a little bit Orwellian, conjuring up notions of ‘thoughtcrime’ (socially unacceptable thoughts) and ‘newspeak’ (the use of language to eliminate personal thought).

But some of my favourite Challenger branding and promotional efforts of late appear to be fighting almost directly against this trend. These are what Adam Morgan, in Eating the Big Fish – a seminal book on Challenger Brands – called 'The Enlightened Zaggers': "brands that deliberately swim against a prevailing cultural current...'I know the world buys into this’, they say, ‘but I am calling it for the BS it really is’."[2]

Win/Loss Analysis and Wladimir Klitschko: Champion to Challenger and Back to the Drawing Board

In November 2015, the seemingly unbeatable heavyweight champion of the world, Wladimir Klitschko – who had not lost in over eleven years – was dethroned by upstart British challenger, Tyson Fury. Klitschko was the second longest-reigning heavyweight champion in history, and second in the list of most wins in title bouts. I think there are lessons to be learnt here about one of the most powerful market and competitive intelligence approaches: win/loss analysis; and so, too, does Dr Steelhammer himself.

Image source: Reuters / Kai Pfaffenbach

A short while after the defeat, Klitschko wrote an article on his LinkedIn page – always interesting reading from a man who holds a PhD, has many business interests outside of boxing, and who has a brother active in Ukrainian politics (former heavyweight champion, Vitali). “You have the power to turn defeat into victory”, he said, before going on to demonstrate how he has done that – and plans to again – through comprehensive analysis of his defeats. At this point, it is worth quoting from the article at length:

Hamlet & Horatio – Business Development Managers & Analysts

‘Business Development Manager’ – it’s one of those job titles that has as many definitions as it has people in the role: 1,869 within a 25 mile radius of my location (in Shropshire), in fact, according to LinkedIn. BDMs range from senior sales people, perhaps most frequently, to those heavily focused on innovation and new products, and those focused on new strategic markets. The premise of this article is that, regardless, BDMs – perhaps more so than anyone else in a company – should have a Market Analyst at their right hand, as a sidekick, or a Horatio to their Hamlet.

Horatio, Hamlet and the Ghost; by Henry Fuseli

Let me explain the analogy: Shakespeare’s Hamlet is commonly spoken of as an enigma, persistent (in trying to prove King Claudius’s guilt), enthusiastic, energetic, and occasionally rash and impulsive[1]; “words are Hamlet’s constant companions” – he has the gift of the gab, one might say. He possesses similar traits to those required in business development or sales. (Funnily enough, Hamlet is often compared to another play, Death of a Salesman, but I’ll stop there!)

Market Intelligence is Key to Challenging

Challengers, in any industry, have to work harder than the market leader – a point succinctly made straight off the bat in one of the seminal books on ‘Challenger Brands’, Eating the Big Fish by Adam Morgan. It is epitomised by the tagline of one of the pin-ups of Challenger branding, Avis, when challenging Hertz in the 1960s: “When you’re only no.2, you try harder. Or else.”

And Challengers have to work smarter too; firstly, to establish the plains upon which they can challenge the leader; and, secondly, because they often do not have access to the same resources as their bigger rival(s) – Challengers have, “greater ambitions than resources”[1], according to Morgan. And this is why market and competitive intelligence (MI and CI) are integral to companies in Challenger positions – John Gumas, another leader in the field, questions whether these companies are underestimating the power of competitor analysis in his book, Marketing Smart.[2]

Challenger brands are, by definition, not the number one and nor are they niche; they have a mindset whereby ambitions exceed resources, and an acceptance of the implications of this gap; and they are pursuing a high growth strategy.[3] They are not always, but often are, small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and, if this is so, it is unlikely that they employ full-time market analysts as large companies tend to do. Indeed, Morgan also draws the link between Challengers and ‘Guerrilla Marketing’ – you can read my piece on how three infamous guerrillas would have advised SMEs to approach MI and CI here, with all of these points relevant to Challengers too.

SWOT Analysis - death by bullet-point!

SWOT analysis may be the most frequently used analytical tool in business; the preserve of management courses the world over, rolling off the corporate tongue with ease. But it is also the most frequently under-utilised analytical tool, all-too-often met with a collective rolling of the eyes, with an output that all-too-often ends up as an appendix in the strategic document to which it is contributing. 

A Guerrilla Approach to Market Intelligence

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can utilise a ‘guerrilla’ approach to market and competitive intelligence (MI & CI) to outmanoeuvre their larger rivals, and gain competitive advantage. This introductory blog calls on the thoughts of some leading guerrillas with regards to intelligence operations, applying those to a business context to begin to outline a framework for guerrilla MI.

The broader guerrilla marketing discipline – which originated to help small businesses compete with their larger rivals, primarily focused on advertising – is well-founded, particularly in the USA. So much so that Google has more hits for ‘guerrilla marketing’ than it does for ‘guerrilla warfare’! However, the theory and practice of this discipline has only paid lip service to the notion of MI & CI, with generalised talk of market and customer research and how it can be done cheaply – mostly platitudes that could come straight from any business text book.