BREXIT: Exporters, Don’t Forecast Long-Term Decline

The Institute of Export has recently released the results of a survey of its members, post-Brexit referendum. There is one finding that has astounded me: 42% of respondents said that, in the event of removal from the Single Market, they expect their business to shrink in the long-term. I have one, provocative, question: what on Earth are these businesses doing between now (or, the recent past) and then?

Budgens, Beware the Middle or Trying to out-Waitrose Waitrose

Michael Porter’s Competitive Strategy is somewhat of a Market Analyst’s Bible. Porter advanced the notion – among many others – that there are, broadly, three generic strategies:

• Differentiation, think Waitrose.
• Cost Leadership, think Aldi.
• Focus, think your local corner shop with its focused geographical market of a few hundred homes.

Michael Porter's Generic Strategies

Challengers Can Become 'Super-Forecasters' for Competitive Advantage

BOOK REVIEW: ‘Super-Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’, by Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner

As a Market Analyst – having worked in a variety of environments from global businesses to academia, consultancy to the military – forecasting is a crucial skill; and, according to this book, "forecasting is a skill that can be cultivated." In one of those aforementioned, cliché-ridden, environments I have oft heard such statements as: “We’re here to forecast the weather, not read the news”; or, even more self-aggrandisingly amusing: “We are prophets, not historians.” Whatever; it remains the case that a central tenet of the role of an Intelligence Analyst is to make assessments about the future.

But, fascinatingly, the central premise of this superb book, ‘Super-Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction’, is that, actually, those who are often trumpeted as ‘experts’ at such things – from economists, to political journalists, to the CIA – are actually no better at it than laymen or, even, “a dart-throwing chimp.” OK, it’s a lot more nuanced than that, as the author Philip Tetlock – whose research coined the infamous anecdote about that talented chimp – would point out, but the point stands.

Shropshire Needs a Kickstart!

‘Crowdfunding’ entered the Oxford English Dictionary in 2011, and is defined therein as, “the practice of funding a project or venture by raising money from a large number of people who each contribute a relatively small amount, typically via the internet.” Essentially, with a new business or project idea, one can seek to raise funds from friends, family and the general public online, instead of going to banks or the ‘Dragons’ Den’.

The global Crowdfunding industry is growing exponentially, having raised an estimated $6.1 billion in 2013, $16.2 billion in 2014, and more than doubling again to $34.4 billion in 2015.[1] The World Bank forecasts that it will be worth $93 billion by 2025 – perhaps a conservative estimate considering recent growth – as it is set to top the venture capital market ($45 billion) in the near future.[2] Figure 1 shows the recent growth, alongside a growth curve to the World Bank’s 2025 estimate based on compound annual growth rate (CAGR, dotted green) and what is a more likely convex curve following recent growth (dotted black).

Figure 1

BREXIT: Chaos and Opportunity

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” Sun Tzu.

OK, OK, “chaos”, is a bit hyperbolic! But it’s apt, perhaps, that the great Chinese general – now unwittingly eponymous with board room slogans the world over – made this observation, given that China is among the countries already seeking trade deal talks with a post-Brexit UK.

An adaptation on the Chaos Symbol

Shropshire's Productivity - A Little Less Puzzling

The UK’s ‘productivity puzzle’ has been described by Chancellor George Osborne as, “the challenge of our time”, and is, according to the Office for National Statistics, “unprecedented in the post-war period.” Despite the general economic recovery from the 2008/09 recession, productivity – essentially the amount of output firms produce for the amount of input expended, measured by gross value-added (GVA) per hour worked – has flat-lined, as shown in Figure 1. 

Figure 1, Source: Office for National Statistics

SMEs, Why the Export Uncertainty?

Half of small businesses cited market intelligence (MI) as a major challenge to exporting, according to a recent report published by the Enterprise Research Centre, based partly at my own alma mater at Aston Business School. Likewise, a seminal study from the OECD and APEC cited "identifying foreign business opportunities" and "limited information to locate/analyse markets" as the second and third most significant barriers for SMEs, with the latter the most frequently cited. But this need not be the case, as data on overseas markets – for almost any product – is plentiful; the challenges, therefore, are in the awareness of this fact, and having the inclination, capacity and skills to utilise this data to reduce uncertainty and identify opportunities.